APC gains in Kaduna, Kogi LG polls; Opposition stays split

Three political developments unfolded this weekend. In Kaduna, former El-Rufai allies Muhammad Bashir Sa'idu, Jafaru Sani and Suleiman Abdu Kwari defected from ADC to APC at a Zaria reception Oct 17, with Sa'idu claiming over 200,000 ADC members followed (unverified). APC subsequently raised Kaduna vote target from 2M to 3M.

In Kogi, APC swept all 21 chairmanship and 239 councillorship seats in LG elections Oct 17, results announced Oct 18 by KOSIEC chairman Mamman Nda-Eri. However, KOSIEC administration (not INEC) limits predictive value for 2027 elections without turnout data or independent verification.

Meanwhile, NDC VP candidate Rabiu Kwankwaso rejected ADC withdrawal demands Oct 18, affirming independent candidacy after ADC accused him of undermining unity by suggesting Atiku step aside for Obi. This reaffirms separate ADC-NDC presidential paths despite historical Obi support in certain regions.

None of these indicate measurable 2027 voter preference changes; watch for verifiable Kaduna structural shifts, detailed Kogi data, and substantive ADC-NDC coalition movement.

SOURCE: https://www.channelstv.com/2026/10/18/kaduna-realigns-kogi-votes-and-the-opposition-divide-deepens/