Cocoa prices crash 62% in 9 months as supply surges and demand plummets

Cocoa prices plummeted 62% from nearly $11,000 per ton in May 2025 to $4,197 per ton by February 2026. This dramatic crash stems from a supply surge in Côte d'Ivoire (30-40% higher harvest) and Ecuador, combined with a 7.2% drop in European grinding demand and 16% decline in Asian consumption. The surplus of 287,000 tons globally overwhelmed markets, while manufacturers cut purchases due to high costs. For West African farmers and traders, this price collapse means devastating losses after the 2025 scarcity panic. The market remains volatile with weak demand and high inventories, suggesting further declines possible. What should you know? Prices may stabilize around $4,000/ton, but recovery depends on demand recovery in Europe and Asia. Consider alternative investments or monitor inventory levels if you're a consumer.

SOURCE: https://nairametrics.com/2026/02/15/from-boom-to-bust-what-really-led-to-the-cocoa-price-fall/