Comercio report: Nigeria tax gains at risk from debt, insecurity, 2027 polls
Comercio Partners’ 10 Years of Money Market and Living Costs report shows Nigeria’s tax collection rose from ₦5.3 trillion in 2019 to ₦12.3 trillion in 2023 and ₦21.6 trillion in 2024, exceeding its ₦19.4 trillion target, though part of the gain reflects naira depreciation. Despite this, the IMF projects the debt‑service‑to‑revenue ratio to climb from 40.8% in 2024 to 53.7% in 2026, meaning more than half of every ₦100 collected could go to debt service before funding schools, roads, hospitals or social protection. Insecurity compounds the strain: the Institute for Economics and Peace estimated it cost Nigeria about 8% of GDP in 2021, with agriculture—over 25% of GDP and employing over 60% of workers—hit hardest; food production in Zamfara and the northwest fell over 40% due to banditry and cattle rustling, while 2024 flood losses in northern states reached an estimated $1 billion. Kidnapping surged, with SBM Intelligence recording 4,722 abductions and ransoms exceeding ₦2.57 billion between July 2024 and June 2025, and the NBS putting total ransom payments for May 2023‑April 2024 at ₦2.23 trillion. These security shocks drive food inflation, drain household savings, raise logistics costs and keep foreign direct investment low. Politically, the IMF’s 2025 Article IV warns that as the 2027 elections approach, reform momentum may slow, weaken or become selective, testing the government’s ability to raise revenue without undermining investor confidence. Will you adjust your budget for higher taxes and inflation, demand greater accountability on debt use, or support community security initiatives?