CPPE forecasts gradual Nigeria economic recovery in H2 2026 amid election risks
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) says Nigeria's economy will keep recovering gradually in the second half of 2026, buoyed by growth in financial services, telecommunications, construction, trade and oil refining. Inflation is expected to stay well below 2025 levels and the exchange rate should remain stable thanks to stronger foreign-exchange inflows and higher external reserves. The outlook comes from CPPE's half-year economic review obtained by Nairametrics.
Despite the brighter macro picture, CPPE warns that rising political activity ahead of the 2027 general elections could destabilise the economy and slow reform implementation. Election-related spending might inject extra liquidity, pushing up inflation and foreign-exchange demand, while diverting attention from policy execution. The think-tank also notes that the real economy still struggles: high interest rates curb private investment, and persistent energy costs, unreliable electricity, logistics bottlenecks and insecurity keep operating costs high for manufacturers, farmers and MSMEs. Capital spending remains below target because of procurement delays and debt-servicing obligations.
CPPE chief Muda Yusuf urges policymakers to shift from macro-stability to boosting competitiveness, calling for faster reforms in power supply, transport infrastructure, port operations, security in farming communities and access to affordable long-term finance. The group also reiterated its earlier call for stronger food-security measures and action against insecurity in agricultural areas to curb inflation. With headline inflation at 15.93% in May 2026, up from 15.69% in April, households and businesses continue to feel pressure on incomes and operating costs. Will policymakers prioritise competitiveness reforms to turn macro-stability into real-world growth, or will election-year distractions derail the progress?