Economists split on CBN's next move: hold rates at 26.5% or cut by 50bps?
Three economists offer conflicting predictions for the CBN's next Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Matilda Adefalujo (Meristem Securities) expects the MPC to hold the MPR at 26.50% through H2:2026, citing need to maintain attractive rates amid higher-for-longer global rates. Aliyu Ilias (economist) predicts at least a 50-basis-point cut, arguing high rates sacrifice growth for inflation control. The current MPR stands at 26.50%.
This debate directly impacts borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. If rates stay high, MSMEs and manufacturers face expensive loans, potentially slowing expansion. If cut, loan costs for homes, cars, or business expansion could drop, stimulating demand. The MPC balances inflation control against growth support—a classic monetary policy trade-off affecting everyone with loans or savings.
Watch the CBN's next meeting (expected H2 2026) for the actual decision. If you're considering a business loan, mortgage, or major purchase, monitor this decision as it will shape your borrowing costs and investment returns over the next year.