Ex-SGF Lawal predicts Atiku's 2027 loss, gives Obi-Kwankwaso 70% win chance
Ex-SGF Babachir Lawal asserts that Atiku Abubakar will 'definitely lose' the 2027 Nigerian presidential election, assigning Peter Obi and Rabi'u Kwankwaso a 70% chance of victory while giving incumbent President Bola Tinubu a 50% probability. Lawal made these predictions during a Symfoni TV interview, with the article published July 26, 2026. He bases his stance on his fallout with Atiku following his resignation from the African Democratic Congress (ADC), alleging that the ADC presidential primary which nominated Atiku was 'massively rigged.' Lawal specifically cited his resignation from the ADC following disagreements over the primary process as the basis for his skepticism about Atiku's legitimacy as the party's candidate.
This prediction matters as it highlights escalating tensions within Nigeria's opposition landscape, particularly the ADC's internal fractures following Lawal's departure. It also signals perceived strength in a potential Obi-Kwankwaso coalition ahead of 2027, while suggesting voter perceptions of Tinubu's re-election prospects remain evenly divided. The claim comes amid other political shifts noted in the article, including comparisons between Amaechi and Wike, Obasanjo's past criticism of Atiku, and recent party defections.
Given Lawal's clear bias stemming from his ADC departure over primary dispute allegations, how should voters weigh this 70% Obi-Kwankwaso forecast against other polling data and party dynamics when forming their 2027 election expectations and voting intentions?