FG misses oil revenue target by N2.79tn as fiscal pressures deepen
FG recorded N2.79 trillion shortfall in oil revenue in Q3 2025, collecting only N2.45 trillion (31.87% of target) despite Nigeria's dependence on oil. Non-oil revenue outperformed expectations at N5.25 trillion (68.18% of projection), driven by VAT, EMTL collections, and independent revenue sources. With total revenue at N7.70 trillion and expenditure at N8.03 trillion, the government faces a fiscal deficit of N328.57 billion financed through privatisation proceeds and domestic borrowing. Minister Abubakar Atiku Bagudu acknowledged persistent revenue shortfalls despite collection efforts, noting that debt servicing consumed N3.41 trillion while non-debt recurrent expenditure stood at N2.66 trillion. The report warns Nigeria's fiscal position remains vulnerable to global oil market shocks and recommends realistic production benchmarks, stronger tax compliance, and prioritization of high-impact projects. With debt service-to-revenue ratio elevated, what fiscal adjustments should the government prioritize to ensure sustainability?