Global LNG supply surge to boost Nigeria's 2026 export revenue

Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) output is set to jump in 2026, a trend that will boost Nigeria's revenue from gas exports as new facilities like the $4.3bn NLNG Train 7 come online. This marks the start of a supply wave that could last until 2029, easing prices and spurring demand from major importers like China and India, analysts say.

Nigeria's LNG exports hit a five-year high in December 2025, reaching 2.1 billion cubic meters due to improved gas supply and plant utilisation. The country's proven reserves of over 210 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) are Africa's largest, positioning it as a key energy player. However, Nigeria's share in global supply—around 6% in 2022—faces competition from new projects, including 35 million metric tons of capacity coming online primarily from the U.S. and Qatar.

The increased global supply will pressure prices. Asian spot LNG is forecast to average between $9.50 and $9.90 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2026, down from $12.45 in 2025. European benchmark prices (TTF) are also expected to ease, which could narrow price spreads and squeeze margins for some exporters. Europe, having cut Russian supplies post-2022 invasion, is set to absorb a significant portion of the new LNG, with imports expected to rise by up to 22 million tons.

With Africa's largest gas reserves and ongoing infrastructure progress, Nigeria is poised to increase its exports. However, the broader market is moving from tightness to ample availability. As a major supplier, will Nigeria use this price dip to secure more long-term contracts or will cheaper global supply impact the economics of its new projects?

SOURCE: https://www.channelstv.com/2026/01/21/nigeria-to-benefit-as-global-lng-supply-set-to-jump-in-2026/