GTI Research values Dangote Refinery IPO at N493, below N525 offer price
GTI Research released a valuation report on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, putting Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals’ (DPRP) probability‑weighted fair value at ₦493 per share. This is below the current public offer price of ₦525 in the N2.15 trillion IPO, which remains open for subscription until October 13, 2026. The report, obtained by Nairametrics, notes that at ₦525 the offer sits about 6.1% above GTI’s weighted estimate and 4.4% above its base case of ₦503, while still 21.9% below the bull‑case of ₦640.
The IPO comprises 4.1 billion ordinary shares at ₦525 each, with a minimum subscription of 10 shares (₦5,250), implying an indicative post‑offer market capitalisation of ₦65.22 trillion (≈$47.83 billion). Only about 3.30% of the post‑offer company will be available to public investors after PanAfrican Refinery Investment SPV acquired 1.04 billion shares in a commitment deal signed August 28, 2026.
GTI cites strong earnings turnaround—half‑year 2026 profit of $1.82 billion—but warns of crude supply constraints, foreign‑exchange mismatch, and execution risks for the planned Phase 2 expansion to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2029. Other Nigerian firms, CardinalStone and Chapel Hill Denham, value the refinery higher, suggesting some analysts see the IPO as underpriced.
Given the premium, will you subscribe at ₦525 relying on future growth, wait for a lower price, or explore other investment opportunities in Nigeria’s energy sector?