NDC Zones Presidency to South, Challenges Tinubu's 2027 Strategy
Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) has zoned its presidential ticket to the South, creating significant political uncertainty for President Bola Tinubu's 2027 re-election bid. The South comprises 17 states across South-west, South-east, and South-south zones, which has been Tinubu's traditional political base. Currently, APC controls 13 southern states while opposition parties govern Oyo, Osun, Anambra, and Abia.
This strategic move aims to prevent Tinubu from monopolizing southern political sentiment, potentially ending his advantage as the "southern candidate." In 2023, Tinubu dominated South-west with 53.6% of votes but performed poorly in South-east where Peter Obi won all five states. The NDC's one-term promise for southern candidates also appeals to northern voters.
Multiple southern presidential aspirants are emerging across opposition parties, including Governor Seyi Makinde (Oyo) under APM and Adewole Adebayo under SDP. However, this could fragment anti-APC votes similar to 2023. The South-east remains Tinubu's biggest hurdle, while South-south could become the deciding battleground. With economic pressures from fuel subsidy removal and naira devaluation, opposition parties are positioned to heavily campaign against Tinubu's performance record.