Nigeria crude output falls to 1.68 mbpd in October, Dangote Refinery feedstock gap persists

Nigeria's crude oil and condensate production averaged 1.68 million barrels per day in October 2026, down 30,000 bpd (1.75%) from September's 1.71 mbpd, according to NUPRC data released November 12. Daily output ranged between 1.60 mbpd and 1.79 mbpd during the month. Excluding condensate, crude-only production stood at 1.51 mbpd—101% of OPEC's 1.5 mbpd quota—marking the sixth consecutive month Nigeria met its allocation.

The decline deepens the feedstock shortage at Dangote Refinery, which has 700,000 bpd installed capacity but receives only 78-80% of its crude domestically via NNPCL, forcing 20-22% imports. Finance Minister Wale Edun acknowledged last month that domestic supply falls short of the refinery's needs. NNPCL remains the primary conduit for government-allocated crude to the $20 billion facility in Lekki.

With oil revenue funding over 80% of Nigeria's budget, sustained output below 1.7 mbpd pressures foreign exchange earnings and petrol price stability. Dangote's import dependency also means dollar demand for crude purchases. The refinery's full ramp-up could reduce Nigeria's petrol import bill by ₦2 trillion annually—if domestic crude allocation increases.

Will the government prioritize Dangote's crude allocation over export quotas, or will import dependency persist despite local refining capacity?

SOURCE: https://dailypost.ng/2026/11/12/nigerias-crude-oil-production-drops-in-october-nuprc/