Nigeria state revenues up 93%, capital spending share hits 61% – World Bank
State government revenues in Nigeria rose by 93% in real terms between 2023 and 2025, while expenditure increased by 92%, according to the World Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update. The share of state spending on capital projects jumped from 46% to 61%, with transport infrastructure seeing the largest increase, alongside strong growth in housing, agriculture and other growth-enhancing investments. Spending on health, education and social protection also rose but grew more slowly than economic infrastructure; education’s share of total expenditure fell from 14.9% in 2021 to 12.1% in 2025, health remained around 7% and social protection rose from 1.4% to 4.4%.
The revenue boost came from improved federation revenues, foreign‑exchange reforms, petrol subsidy removal and stronger revenue administration. States used the extra fiscal space to expand economic infrastructure and strengthen their fiscal positions. Nigeria’s real GDP grew 4.2% in the first half of 2026, the poverty rate stabilised for the first time since 2019, gross external reserves exceeded $54 billion in September and the current account surplus reached $12 billion (7.1% of GDP).
However, inflation, which had fallen from 27.6% in January 2025 to 15.2% in December 2025, faces renewed pressure from higher fuel prices and seasonal food costs.
The World Bank says higher revenues offer a chance to close infrastructure gaps and improve essential services, but urges states to boost spending efficiency, accountability and service delivery to ensure gains translate into better jobs and higher living standards. With growth projected to average 4.4% between 2026 and 2028 and inflation expected to ease to about 12% by 2028, will the increased capital spending on transport and housing translate into better jobs and services for your community, or will inefficiencies dilute the gains?