Nigerian firms flag taxation, insecurity, rates as top Sept constraints despite confidence rise
Nigerian businesses identified high/multiple taxation (67.1 index points), insecurity (66.2), and high interest rates (64.3) as their top constraints in September 2026 per CBN's Business Expectations Survey. Despite these pressures, the Business Confidence Index stood at 13.4 points indicating continued optimism, down slightly from August's 17.1 for Industry but positive across all sectors.
Firms expect confidence to strengthen to 23.6 points by December 2026 and 36.1 by March 2027, driven by increased demand (29.3%), economic diversification (18.9%), and access to finance (13.5%). Industry sector showed strongest improvement (19.4 points in Sept vs 17.1 in Aug), while Services moderated to 10.2 and Agriculture to 12.8. North-East emerged as most optimistic region, South-East least.
Context includes ongoing tax reforms since June 2025 (Tinubu's four bills) and MSME presumptive tax framework from March 2026 aimed at reducing multiple taxation. Borrowing costs remain high but may modestly decline over six months, with firms optimistic about naira gaining modestly against dollar.
For business planning: Monitor sector-specific trends (Industry up, Services/Agriculture down), regional variations, and policy impacts as confidence projections suggest improving conditions despite persistent financing and tax concerns.