Nigeria's 2006 scenario exercise frames Tinubu's reforms as critical choice for 2026
In 2006, LEAP Africa and the African Leadership Institute guided 35 Nigerians to build four scenarios for Nigeria by 2025: Parambulator, Shine Your Eye, Jaga Jaga Republic, and We Don Win. The exercise stressed that fundamental change requires risky quantum leaps, not small linear steps. Today in 2026, these scenarios remain relevant to evaluate President Bola Tinubu’s reforms, particularly his push to decentralize police via constitutional state police creation.
The author argues Tinubu’s state police initiative transforms a decades-long political debate into concrete action, changing security architecture to bring policing closer to communities. However, reforms need more than presidential ambition—they require mission-driven leadership building consensus and institutions that outlast any single leader’s tenure. Nigeria’s history shows policy reversals waste progress, like repeatedly switching off a reforming engine.
The piece frames Nigeria’s choice: remain in stagnation ('Parambulator') or pursue transformative change ('We Don Win'). With institutional continuity, today’s choices could shape a stronger economy and better country by 2030-2031. What leadership qualities will Nigerians prioritize to sustain reforms beyond electoral cycles?