Nigeria's 2027 election: APC wins 4/5 bye-elections as NDC lead narrows

Last weekend's INEC-run bye-elections in Gombe, Kano, Bauchi and Delta saw APC win 4 seats (Gombe/Kwami/Funakaye, Dawakin Kudu, Disina, Udu) and APM win 1 (Sakwa). This week's SBM Intelligence survey shows NDC support at 42.2% and APC at 25.5% - a significant narrowing from May's 57.4% vs 11% gap. Simultaneously, petrol prices have risen sharply again, pushing cost of living to the forefront of political conversation.

These developments signal the 2027 campaign is moving from speculation to measurable evidence. The bye-elections demonstrate APC's organizational capacity across North-East, North-West and South-South zones, though local context remains crucial (as seen in uncontested Kano seat). The narrowing poll gap suggests voter sentiment is fluid and responsive to economic pressures. Crucially, the Supreme Court's restoration of electoral act provisions on party nominations adds legal clarity amid ongoing party defections and restructuring.

Watch whether rising fuel costs make cost of living the dominant election issue as predicted. Monitor if high-profile defections (like Atiku gaining Jegede in Ondo or Ebiseni joining APC) actually translate to voter support - remember, defections are not votes. Most critically, track youth registration conversion: while 18-34 year olds made up 68-74% of recent CVR registrations, turnout remains the decisive factor. January's election will reveal which parties successfully converted organizational strength, poll leads, and rally crowds into actual ballots.

SOURCE: https://www.channelstv.com/2026/09/26/the-campaign-is-leaving-abuja-and-entering-the-polling-booth/