Nigeria's vehicle sales to grow 7.6% in 2026 driven by Dangote refinery, lower inflation
BMI projects Nigeria's new vehicle sales will grow 7.6% in 2026, building on an estimated 20% increase in 2025, according to their Sub-Saharan Africa Autos Report seen by Nairametrics. This growth is driven by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery operating at full capacity (650,000 barrels per day since February 2026), which improves fuel supply and supports the naira. Inflation has moderated to 15.1% (its lowest level since November 2020), freeing household income for big-ticket purchases like vehicles. Government policies waiving import duties on electric vehicles (from 5% to 0% since April 2026) also boost demand.
However, challenges remain: potential naira depreciation later in 2026 could raise import costs, and used vehicles continue to dominate Nigeria's market (local production accounts for less than 20% of total sales). The report notes EV adoption will grow faster than the overall market due to lower costs from Chinese models and government incentives, but faces hurdles like inadequate charging infrastructure and high financing costs. Nigeria's auto market is expected to expand at a 6.4% compound annual growth rate from 2026 to 2032, supported by logistics expansion, local manufacturing pushes (including the pending NAIDP Act), and the AfCFTA Rules of Origin signed in February 2026, which may boost intra-African auto trade.