Obi, Kwankwaso Defect to NDC, Shattering Opposition Unity
Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso defected from African Democratic Congress (ADC) to Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) last month, shattering the opposition's united front for the 2027 presidential election. The North-west geopolitical zone, traditionally an APC stronghold since 2015, is most affected by this realignment that followed the failed 'Ibadan Declaration' opposition coalition.
Political analysts warn this mirrors the 2023 scenario where divided opposition candidates split votes. Professor Kamilu Fagge notes Kwankwaso's influence is now largely confined to Kano, as his former protege Governor Abba Yusuf has aligned with APC figures, fracturing Kwankwaso's traditional youth base. Governor Yusuf has united major political players against his former mentor.
While the North-west remains APC territory due to Buhari's legacy, the party's support is not guaranteed amid economic policy hardships. With the opposition divided and Kwankwaso weakened in Kano, President Tinubu benefits from APC's formidable regional structure and the lack of unified opposition challenge.