USD/NGN Forecast: N1,290–N1,370 Range as CBN Cuts Rate to 23%

Fundamental analysis projects the USD/NGN exchange rate will stay between N1,290 and N1,370 per US dollar through October. The Monetary Policy Committee has eased its stance, cutting the policy rate to 23%, while seasonal fourth-quarter import demand is expected to limit any sharp naira appreciation. Inflation is approaching 14% and increased domestic petroleum-processing are supporting real-yield sentiment, slowing domestic depreciation. However, relatively low Nigerian interest rates reduce the spread for foreign and domestic investors, lowering capital inflows seeking high risk-adjusted returns. Higher foreign exchange demand from corporates and consumers ahead of the Yuletide season should keep the naira supported around the N1,300/$ level. Foreign reserves remain comfortable at over US$55 billion, giving the CBN substantial capacity to intervene if a sharp correction occurs. Operational reforms have narrowed the gap between the official NAFEM rate and the parallel market, reducing arbitrage. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently around 101.80, down from multi-month highs near 102.9, with US inflation at 3.7% CPI and 6.3% PPI year-over-year. Markets price an 84% probability the FOMC will leave rates unchanged at its October 27-28 meeting. This range-bound outlook affects importers, exporters, holiday spending, and investment decisions for Nigerians navigating forex costs and purchasing power. Will you adjust your foreign exchange purchases ahead of the Yuletide season, or hold off expecting the naira to stay within this projected range?

SOURCE: https://nairametrics.com/2026/10/19/naira-projected-to-hold-at-n1290-n1370-this-month/